Professor Jessie

Chapter 8: Valuing Stocks

FIN 3400 — Finance for Non-Financial Managers · MDC Kendall · Fall 2026
Module 2 — Exam: Nov 1 (200 pts)
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Equity: Ownership, Not Loans

Businesses need capital to start up, expand, and enter new markets. Chapter 7 covered how firms borrow money through bonds. This chapter explores the other side: equity financing — selling ownership stakes to investors.

Why Investors Buy Stock

Unlike bondholders, stockholders have no promised payments. No coupon, no maturity date, no guarantee of getting your money back. So why would anyone buy stock? Because ownership comes with upside potential — dividends and price appreciation that can far exceed bond returns. Over the long run, stocks have historically returned about 12.8% annually, compared to 6% for bonds.

The tradeoff: stocks are riskier. Prices fluctuate daily, companies can go bankrupt, and dividends can be cut. But investors accept that risk because the market rewards it.

Discussion starter: Would you rather own a bond that pays you 5% guaranteed, or stock in a company that might return 15% — or might lose 40%? Your answer depends on your time horizon, risk tolerance, and financial goals. There's no universally "right" answer.

Common Stock: The Residual Claim

Common stock represents ownership in a corporation. As a shareholder, you're a part owner — but your claim is residual, meaning you get whatever's left after everyone else is paid.

The Order of Claims in Bankruptcy

Being last in line is risky, but it also means unlimited upside. Bondholders can never earn more than their promised yield. Stockholders can see their investment double, triple, or more if the company thrives.

What Drives Stock Value?

Stock Exchanges and Markets

Stock exchanges provide liquidity — the ability to buy and sell quickly at a known price. Without liquidity, stock investing would be far less attractive. Imagine owning shares but having no way to sell them!

Major U.S. Exchanges

NYSE (New York Stock Exchange)

  • Largest equities marketplace in the world
  • Home to 2,300+ companies
  • Physical trading floor with designated market makers
  • Home to most large, established blue-chip companies

Nasdaq

  • Second-largest equities marketplace
  • Fully electronic — no physical trading floor
  • Uses dealers (market makers) who set bid/ask prices
  • Known for technology companies (Apple, Microsoft, Google)

Stock Market Indexes

Indexes track the performance of groups of stocks, giving us a pulse on the overall market:

Why index design matters: The Dow has only 30 stocks and is price-weighted, so a high-priced stock like UnitedHealth moves the index more than a low-priced one — regardless of company size. The S&P 500 is market-cap weighted, so Apple's movement matters far more than a small company's. Always know how an index is constructed before interpreting its movement.

How Stock Trading Works

When you place a trade, you enter a world of bid prices, ask prices, and order types. Understanding these mechanics makes you a smarter investor.

Bid and Ask Prices

Bid Price

  • Highest price a market maker will pay
  • The price at which you sell

Ask Price

  • Lowest price a market maker will accept
  • The price at which you buy

The spread between bid and ask is the market maker's profit and your hidden cost. On highly liquid stocks, the spread might be a penny. On less-traded stocks, it can be much wider.

Order Types

Real-world tip: Market orders guarantee execution but not price. Limit orders guarantee price but not execution. For a stock you must own immediately, use a market order. For a price you're unwilling to exceed, use a limit order. Most experienced investors use limit orders for larger trades to avoid surprises.

Basic Stock Valuation

Stock valuation is fundamentally about finding the present value of future cash flows — just like bonds. But there's a crucial difference: stock cash flows are uncertain. You don't know what future dividends will be, and you don't know what price you'll sell at.

The One-Period Model

If you plan to hold a stock for one year, its value today is:

P₀ = (D₁ + P₁) / (1 + i)

Where D₁ = expected dividend in one year, P₁ = expected selling price, and i = required return.

Extending to Multiple Periods

For a two-year holding period:

P₀ = D₁/(1+i) + (D₂ + P₂)/(1+i)²

Using a longer horizon reduces some uncertainty — but not all, because you still must estimate the final selling price. And what if you hold indefinitely?

The fundamental insight: If you extend this to an infinite holding period, the selling price term disappears. The stock's value becomes simply the present value of all future dividends forever. This is the theoretical foundation of the dividend discount model — every stock's value ultimately comes from the cash it returns to shareholders.

The Dividend Discount Model

The dividend discount model (DDM) says a stock's value equals the present value of all expected future dividends. In theory, you'd need to estimate an infinite number of future dividend payments. In practice, we make simplifying assumptions.

The Constant-Growth Model (Gordon Growth Model)

If we assume dividends grow at a constant rate forever, the infinite series simplifies to a single elegant formula:

P₀ = D₁ / (i − g)

Where D₁ = next year's dividend, i = required return, and g = constant growth rate.

Example: Coca-Cola

Coca-Cola paid $1.84 per share in dividends in 2023. If we project dividends growing at 5.49% and investors require a 9% return:

With Coca-Cola's actual price around $59.54, the model suggests the stock is fairly valued — the small difference reflects differing growth or risk assumptions among investors.

How much comes from growth? If Coca-Cola's dividend never grew (g = 0), the stock would be worth $1.84 / 0.09 = $20.44. Since the actual value is much higher, over 65% of Coca-Cola's stock value comes from expected dividend growth. Growth expectations are the engine of stock valuation.

Preferred Stock: The Hybrid

Preferred stock is a hybrid security — it has features of both debt and equity. Like debt, it pays a fixed dividend. Like equity, it represents ownership (with no maturity date).

Key Characteristics

Valuing Preferred Stock

Because preferred dividends are constant (zero growth), we use the constant-growth model with g = 0:

P₀ = D / i

It's simply a perpetuity — the present value of a fixed payment continuing forever.

Example

Coca-Cola preferred stock paying $1.84 annually, with investors requiring 9%:

P₀ = $1.84 / 0.09 = $20.44

Compare this to the common stock value of $55.27 — the difference is entirely due to growth expectations. Preferred stock has no growth upside, which is why it trades at a much lower price.

Variable-Growth Valuation

The constant-growth model is elegant, but real companies don't grow at one rate forever. A startup might grow 30% for five years, then settle into 5% long-term growth. The variable-growth model handles this in two stages:

Two-Stage Approach

P₀ = Σ Dₜ/(1+i)ᵗ + [Dₙ₊₁/(i−g₂)] / (1+i)ⁿ

When to Use Variable Growth

Important constraint: The constant-growth model breaks down when g > i (you get a negative price, which is nonsensical). The variable-growth model solves this by assuming growth eventually drops below the required return. This is why we can't value Amazon or Tesla with a simple Gordon Growth model — their current growth rates are too high.

The P/E Ratio: Relative Valuation

Instead of computing a stock's fundamental value from cash flows, the P/E ratio approach compares a stock's price to its earnings. It's a relative valuation tool — is this stock expensive or cheap compared to similar companies?

Two Types of P/E

Estimating Future Price with P/E

If you expect a company to earn $5 per share next year and similar companies trade at an average P/E of 15:

Expected Price = Expected EPS × Expected P/E = $5 × 15 = $75

Interpreting P/E Ratios

P/E LevelInterpretation
High P/EMarket expects high growth — or stock is overvalued
Low P/EMarket expects low growth — or stock is undervalued
Zero P/ECompany is losing money (no earnings to divide by)
Historical P/E ratios — S&P 500 vs. Coca-Cola vs. McDonald's
Caution: P/E ratios vary enormously across industries. A tech company with a P/E of 40 might be fairly valued if it's growing rapidly, while a utility with the same P/E would be wildly overpriced. Always compare P/E to industry peers, not to the broad market.

Expected Return from Stocks

If a stock is fairly priced, the discount rate used in the constant-growth model tells us the expected return investors anticipate. We can rearrange the Gordon Growth formula:

i = (D₁ / P₀) + g

This splits expected return into two components:

Example

If a stock pays $2 in dividends next year, trades at $50, and grows dividends at 5%:

Compare to bonds: A bond's return comes from coupon income and price changes. A stock's return comes from dividends and price changes. The structure is identical — the difference is certainty. Bond cash flows are contractual; stock cash flows are expectations. That uncertainty is why stocks must offer higher expected returns.

Key Takeaways

Next up: Chapter 9 — Characterizing Risk and Return. Now that we can value stocks and bonds, we need to understand how to measure and compare their risk. The risk-return relationship is the foundation of all investment decisions.

Further Learning Resources

Explore these to deepen your understanding of this chapter's topics:

▶ YouTube Dividend Discount Model Explained in 5 Minutes ▶ YouTube Dividend Discount Model (DDM): The Black Sheep of Valuation? ▶ YouTube Stock Valuation & DDM — Full Playlist 📖 Investopedia Dividend Discount Model (DDM) — Definition 💬 Reddit r/stocks — Stock valuation discussions